The Emmys aren't even pretending anymore. After dipping their toe in reality show waters a few years ago, they are now in over their head.

Not only have the Emmys added an award for best reality competition host this year, but the five nominees (Tom Bergeron, Heidi Klum, Howie Mandel, Jeff Probst and Ryan Seacrest) are also the emcees of the 60th Primetime Emmy Awards ceremony itself, which airs Sept. 21 on ABC.

In the interest of full disclosure, I consider the proliferation of reality show programming to be one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Does anyone truly believe that a television genre that spawned Heidi Montag and Spencer Pratt is good for us? Anyone?

Having said that, those programs are what kept the lights turned on during the dark days of the recent Writers Guild of America strike. That action flatlined the television season for scripted sitcoms and dramas. Some lucky series crawled from the strike's wreckage to return with a truncated season, while unlucky others got canceled during the strike, never to return.

On the plus side, the bar keeps rising for the surviving dramas and comedies. Scan through the list of nominees in the main acting categories and you find three Oscar winners (Sally Field, Holly Hunter and Dianne Wiest) and three Oscar nominees (Alec Baldwin, Candice Bergen and Glenn Close). Throw in guest appearance noms and the numbers rise.

Even without "The Sopranos" in its quiver and its luster fading, HBO still managed to snag the most nominations with 85 (this includes the creative Emmys, awarded separately). But the real story is the rise of basic cable outlet AMC, which surged forth with 20 nominations for its two new original series, "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad." "Mad Men" is joined by FX's "Damages" as the first two basic cable shows to be nominated for Outstanding Drama Series (the Emmys have woefully overlooked FX's "Rescue Me").

Speaking of ignored, the Emmys had a final chance to honor "The Wire," one of the most salient, challenging TV dramas ever, and they blew it. Also snubbed completely or in large part this year: "Grey's Anatomy," "Desperate Housewives," "Heroes," "Friday Night Lights," "Reaper," and "Eli Stone."

Our predictions for the winners in the top categories are:

Outstanding Drama Series
"Boston Legal"
"Damages"
"Dexter"
"House"
"Lost"
"Mad Men"

The scoop: "Mad Men" is the most mesmerizing, stylized study of longing and deception ever to appear on the small screen. "Boston Legal" is the stodgy (albeit still frequently wildly entertaining) old comer refusing to cede ground to the relative newcomers, including the deliciously dark "Dexter," the mystical "Lost" and morally ambiguous "Damages." "House" is a fairly predictable yet clever melodrama lifted by the acting talents of its title character.

The winner: "Mad Men" 

Outstanding Comedy Series
"Curb Your Enthusiasm"
"Entourage"
"The Office"
"30 Rock"
"Two and a Half Men"

The scoop: You know what it's like when everyone you know loves some cool thing and you have to quietly confess that you just don't get it, at the risk of losing any last shred of hipness? That's how I am with "Curb Your Enthusiasm." I deal with annoying people in real life; why would I invite another one like Larry David's character into my living room on a weekly basis? The other four noms are the same as last year's slate, which means "30 Rock" ought to take the trophy again. It also means Emmy ignored the sweet "How I Met Your Mother"; the perennially underappreciated "Scrubs"; and "Samantha Who?," which was the only successful (and funny) sitcom to launch last season.

The winner: "30 Rock"

Lead Actor in a Drama
James Spader, "Boston Legal"
Bryan Cranston, "Breaking Bad"
Michael C. Hall, "Dexter"
Hugh Laurie, "House"
Gabriel Byrne, "In Treatment"
Jon Hamm, "Mad Men"

The scoop: Spader's scenery chewing has captivated Emmy voters, who have handed him the trophy three times. Hall is convincingly sympathetic as the twisted moralist/serial killer Dexter, whose homicidal tendencies seem almost justified; Byrne just has to look into the camera with his wounded, all-knowing baby blues and everyone melts; Cranston broke free of any vestiges of Malcolm's inept dad with his meth-lab-running Walt White; and Laurie is House. As strong as these gentlemen are, Hamm is TV's new "it" boy. His portrayal of enigmatic Don Draper is so subtle and nuanced that you can't take your eyes off of him. (Of course, why would you want to do that anyway? Ever?)

The winner: Jon Hamm

Lead Actress in a Drama
Sally Field, "Brothers & Sisters"
Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
Glenn Close, "Damages"
Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit"
Holly Hunter, "Saving Grace"

The scoop: No lack of acting chops here: two Oscar winners and Close, who has been nominated five times. Both Field and Hargitay have won in this category before for their current roles; of the two, Hargitay was given the better scripts this year, especially in her tour de force performance as an undercover prisoner. Sedgwick continues to charm as the flawed, eccentric, Southern detective in "The Closer," but Close's portrayal of amoral and ruthless lawyer Patty Hewes is spellbinding in her manipulative machinations.

The winner: Glenn Close

Lead Actor in a Comedy
Tony Shalhoub, "Monk"
Steve Carell, "The Office"
Lee Pace, "Pushing Daisies"
Alec Baldwin, "30 Rock"
Charlie Sheen, "Two and a Half Men"

The scoop: These men are all masters of their own domain. Even though Shalhoub has won three times in this category for his "defective detective" Monk, he has some stiff competition this year. Pace is adorable in the whimsical "Pushing Daisies," but the show hasn't been strong enough for him to win. Sheen is the highest paid actor on TV, and for good reason: He consistently delivers on a character whose actions are cringe-worthy, but he still makes you laugh. Carell is a marvel as Dunder Mifflin's inept middle manager Michael Scott, concurrently breaking your heart with his cluelessness and tickling your funny bone. Baldwin gets the least screen time of anyone here, but there is not a wasted moment when he's in a scene. His self-obsessed Jack Donaghy is blessedly void of any self-examination or doubt and his ends always justify the means. It's a tough balancing act not to tip over into parody, and yet he never does. 

The winner: Alec Baldwin

Lead Actress in a Comedy
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, "The New Adventures of Old Christine"
Christina Applegate, "Samantha Who?"
Tina Fey, "30 Rock"
America Ferrera, "Ugly Betty"
Mary-Louise Parker, "Weeds"

The scoop: Past winner Felicity Huffman from "Desperate Housewives" deserved a slot here. She continues to do work that surpasses the often tepid writing on the page. Fey is a stronger writer than actress. Applegate is kookily believable as an amnesiac learning some harsh truths about her past. And Parker is a dry delight as the pot-dealing mom on "Weeds." However, past winner Louis-Dreyfus is the one who consistently makes us laugh with her skillful timing.

The winner: Julia Louis-Dreyfus

Supporting Actor in a Drama
William Shatner, "Boston Legal"
Ted Danson, "Damages"
Zeljko Ivanek, "Damages"
Michael Emerson, "Lost"
John Slattery, "Mad Men"

The scoop: This is a dogfight. Shatner's hilarious, often poignant portrayal of the oafish-yet-endearing Denny Crane has won him four Emmys (including one as Outstanding Guest Actor), so he has to be considered the front-runner. However, as the dashing and dastardly Arthur Frobisher, Danson showed his dramatic chops were as formidable as his comedic flair, while Ivanek played his doomed attorney with painful secrets that seared his soul. Slattery provides much-needed comic relief on "Mad Men" with a mere glance or scant words; he makes any scene better. Emerson plays a brilliant, haunted sociopath to perfection and stands out in a large ensemble cast on "Lost." How about a five-way tie?

The winner: Ted Danson

Supporting Actress in a Drama
Candice Bergen, "Boston Legal"
Rachel Griffiths, "Brothers & Sisters"
Chandra Wilson, "Grey's Anatomy"
Sandra Oh, "Grey's Anatomy"
Dianne Wiest, "In Treatment"

The scoop: Before she had a chance to get nominated again, last year's winner, Katherine Heigl, took herself out of the running. Not, mind you, because she felt that her acting hadn't been up to par. No, it was because she felt the show's writers had not given her a compelling enough story line to warrant a nomination. We don't think she'll ever have to worry about getting nominated again. Double Oscar winner Wiest basically listens, nods and quietly reacts as Gabriel Bryne's therapist. If she wins, it will be Emmy's way of thanking another well-respected movie thespian for coming to play in the baby pool. (Plus, the case could be made that Melissa George and Michelle Forbes of "In Treatment" are as deserving.) Three-time nominee Wilson is magical as Dr. Miranda Bailey. She is so believable that you have to remind yourself not to take two aspirin and call her in the morning.

The winner: Chandra Wilson

Supporting Actor in a Comedy
Jeremy Piven, "Entourage"
Kevin Dillon, "Entourage"
Neil Patrick Harris, "How I Met Your Mother"
Rainn Wilson, "The Office"
Jon Cryer, "Two and a Half Men"

The scoop: With a total repeat of last year's nominees, this category could use a little shaking up. What about Chi McBride, the cynical PI on "Pushing Daisies"? Jack McBrayer as the perpetually peppy page on "30 Rock"? C'mon, Emmy voters, stretch a little! Piven won last year for his spot-on role as agent Ari Gold, but this year it is between two actors who play their roles with demented perfection. As Dwight Schrute, Wilson takes officious brown nosing to thermonuclear levels. He's so much fun to watch only because you don't have to work with him. As "legen & wait for it & dary" Barney Stinson, Harris is the funniest thing about "How I Met Your Mother" -- and is meant to be. He's smarmy, self-obsessed and straight-up hilarious.

The winner: Neil Patrick Harris

Supporting Actress in a Comedy
Kristin Chenoweth, "Pushing Daisies"
Jean Smart, "Samantha Who?"
Amy Poehler, "Saturday Night Live"
Holland Taylor, "Two and a Half Men"
Vanessa Williams, "Ugly Betty"

The scoop: The Emmys love it when a beautiful woman can also be funny, and Williams is delectably bitchy and gorgeous as designing diva Wilhelmina. Broadway doyenne Chenoweth is adorable and appropriately cartoonish as Olive. Smart is much better than her material as the mom on "Samantha Who?" With a change in nominating rules that now allows variety show performers to receive noms in main acting categories, Poehler is the first "SNL" actress nominated here. Taylor is great and she should be; but she's basically playing the same tough-as-nails dame that she's played since "Bosom Buddies."

The winner: Vanessa Williams