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With 'The Sopranos' ending, HBO has some big shoes to
fill in its lineup
By Lea Goldman
Forbes
There goes the neighborhood. "The Sopranos", HBO's landmark crime family drama, bids arrivederci on June 10 following six seasons, 86 episodes and at least five dozen whackings. Along the way, the show racked up 96 Emmy nods and 18 wins, including one for Outstanding Drama Series in 2004 (a first for cable), with perhaps even more to come once this year's Emmy nominations are announced July 19.
The family business proved a lucrative one for both James Gandolfini, who played the bruising Jersey godfather Tony Soprano, as well as co-stars Edie Falco (Carmela Soprano), Michael Imperioli (Christopher Moltisanti) and Lorraine Bracco (Dr. Melfi). Forbes estimates that the primary cast banked a combined $52 million for the 21 episodes comprising the sixth and final season. That helped land the ensemble at No. 9 on last year's Celebrity 100 list of the most powerful people in show business.
Slideshow: What's next for "The Sopranos"?
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Sopranos' Luxe Life -- Fact Or
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TV's Most Shocking Money Makers
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Fans of Gandolfini should keep the dial set on HBO. Last
summer, he inked an exclusive three-year producing deal with Time Warner-owned
HBO, which gives the cable channel first bite at films and series he develops
under his Attaboy Films production outfit. He's also executive producing and
narrating "Alive Day Memories: Home From Iraq", an HBO documentary about
American soldiers back from war. No word on what's in store for Falco, who
thrice nabbed the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama for her work as
the shrewd mob wife Carmella Soprano. "Who the hell knows?" she confessed to
Reuters in April.
"The Sopranos'" series finale marks the last of HBO's trifecta of watercooler mega-hits --including "Sex and the City" and "Six Feet Under" -- to end its run. At its peak, with the fourth season premiere, "The Sopranos" commanded an estimated audience of 13.4 million viewers; this season, the show averages between 10 and 11 million (factoring in a new Nielsen ratings system), which includes the million or so who catch the show on On Demand and DVR. That means that a third of HBO's 30 million subscribers have made appointment television of "The Sopranos", more viewers than those for broadcast network television hits like NBC's "ER," "Scrubs" and "The Office."
But HBO has run into trouble replicating the "Sopranos" phenomena. Recent original series like "Rome," "Deadwood" and, most recently, "Big Love" haven't seized the national zeitgeist in the same way Carrie Bradshaw and Tony Soprano did. HBO's new Sunday night anchor will be "Entourage," which by cable standards is a bona fide hit, though it ekes out less than half as many viewers on average as "The Sopranos." Also on tap for Sundays this summer: the quirky half-hour comedy "Flight of the Conchords," about "New Zealand's fourth most popular digi-folk parodists." Following the June 10 Sopranos finale, HBO will premier "John from Cincinnati," an hour-long "metaphysical drama" about surfing created by David Milch, the acclaimed creator of "NYPD Blue" and "Deadwood." If it all sounds too wacky, just remember that HBO has made hay of off-the-wall shtick that the networks won't touch.
Slideshow: What's next for "The Sopranos"?
More celebrity slideshows on Forbes.com
Tony Soprano's Leadership
Lessons
Sopranos' Luxe Life -- Fact Or
Fiction?
TV's Most Shocking Money Makers
Hollywoood's Top-Earning Stars
Most Overexposed Celebrities
Hollywood's Richest Young Stars
But the cable network's potential vulnerability took on grave proportions with the recent abrupt resignation of CEO Chris Albrecht following his arrest in May for assaulting his girlfriend in Las Vegas. Albrecht, a 22-year HBO veteran, is widely credited with establishing the network's street cred as a purveyor of original programming. Will his soon-to-be-named successor--former Viacom exec Tom Freston? HBO Films president Colin Callender?--boast the kind of Albrechtian cajones that led HBO to compete against the richest, most well-endowed broadcast networks on the planet?
"While everyone is waiting to see what we do, we are doing," insists Dave Baldwin, HBO's executive vice president of program planning, who says HBO will name Albrecht's replacement "imminently." Baldwin says HBO has been through this before and survived, citing the unexpected promotion of HBO chief Michael Fuchs to run Time Warner Music Group in 1995. "This place is running smoothly."
Baldwin isn't sweating the imminent loss of "The Sopranos" or the fact that none of the current titles comes close to its ratings. Unlike broadcast networks, which charge advertisers based on show ratings, HBO relies on monthly subscriber fees to pay its bills. One way HBO competes for sustained, dues-paying eyeballs is with edgy, adult fare unavailable on the networks, which are bound by FCC decency regulations. Nor does HBO have to kowtow to advertisers. (Those bone-crunching beat-downs and gory shootouts on "The Sopranos" would never pass muster on, say, NBC. ) As a result, HBO's series don't live and die by their ratings. That's why the network so rarely yanks a show from its lineup after a season -- it can afford to cultivate audiences.
In fact, HBO's current lull of hits won't likely affect its subscriptions, which have been rising steadily since 1994 by an average of 3.4% annually. Because of its short season, "The Sopranos" represented just four months of original programming a year. And even when the show was off-air for two years between 2005 and 2006, due to contract disputes with the cast, HBO saw an uptick in subscriptions.
Plus, HBO has mastered new ways to wring money out of its franchises. Three years ago -- when "Sex and the City" hung up its Manolos -- that show sold a reported $206 million worth of DVDs. Expect "Sopranos" DVD sales to gross even more following the finale and the inevitable release of box sets. Last year, HBO made history when basic cable channel A&E shelled out a reported $2.5 million per episode to HBO to rerun the show, defying conventional wisdom that only half-hour comedies and unserialized dramas like "Law & Order" can be syndicated.
This fall, HBO unveils a rich roster of potential hits, including an
hour-long relationship drama called "Tell Me You Love Me," featuring the kind of
graphic sex scenes that helped make "Sex and the City" must-see TV. Gabriel Byrne will star as a therapist in "In
Treatment," produced by actor Mark Wahlberg, who also produces
"Entourage." And Alan Ball, the creator of "Six Feet Under," is
developing a series based on the southern gothic novels "The Vampire
Chronicles." And "Curb Your Enthusiasm," starring
"Seinfeld" co-creator Larry David, will return for its sixth
season.
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