My Oscar prediction record is startling: I honestly don't think I have
gotten one wrong in over 10 years. I was kicked out of an Academy Award party
many years ago due to my predictions proving correct so tirelessly that it
infuriated the host. Not big on dessert, and having had my fill of both stuffed
mushrooms and stuffed breads, I left without incident. He had already delivered
an impassioned "You just shouldn't win twice" speech at a previous party, in
regard to Hilary Swank taking home her second,
so his bad manners came as no surprise. (For the record, yes, I called Swank
Why am I going on and on about my Oscar prediction track record for a
piece about Emmy predictions? Well, because it's pristine, spotless,
perfect. And my Emmy one -- yeah, not so much.
Fact is, the Emmys can be big on repeat visits to the podium for folks. Real
big. That makes it occasionally tough to call. They are also prone to
nostalgia, to giving it up to the "sentimental favorite." Then there's the
penchant for debut-season sweeps (which HBO's "Girls" can easily pull
off this year, though I doubt it will).
That said, I have done my TV-addicted best to predict the outcome in the
major categories here. The 64th Primetime Emmy
Awards airs Sunday, Sept. 23, and is hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, who is a nominee as
well, in the variety series category. Yes, the host is also a nominee, much like
James Franco at the Oscars. But
Kimmel will be entertaining and actually has a shot at winning.
Who are you rooting for this year? Connect and sound off on
Facebook and Twitter
Great comedies all. This is the way I see it: The bloom is off the "Curb Your Enthusiasm"
and "30 Rock" roses, and Jim Parsons already put "The Big Bang Theory" on
the Emmy map. "Girls" has the buzz, but I don't see one named Emmy ... yet. "Veep" is fantastic but nowhere
near rarified air. Again ... yet. "Modern Family" should
win, continuing its roll, the bloom not off its rose. Yet.
Bottom line: Rooting for "Big Bang," but "Modern Family"
Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Let the contradictions begin! Well, first things first: Alec Baldwin's won one too many. Jim
Parsons, too, is an Emmy darling, and Jon Cryer would come across
only as a mea culpa of sorts. Don Cheadle and Louis C.K. are pure throwaway
territory. This being the case, my prediction is that they will go with, yes,
the "sentimental favorite." Larry David will win in a "swan song"
capacity. And ya know what? That's so fine by me.
Bottom line: Torn between David and Parsons, but David will
Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
This is the toughest one to call. I do not think any "SNL" alumna will get
the gold, which includes Julia Louis-Dreyfus (for HBO's
"Veep"), although that would make for an interesting acceptance speech,
considering how vocal she was winning an Emmy and CBS promptly canceling her
last series. Zooey Deschanel's "New Girl" wound up
being a surprise hit, but as an ensemble. While Edie Falco of "Nurse Jackie" could
cause an upset, my money is actually on Melissa McCarthy making her second
trip to the stage in a row. Even without the strong current of "Bridesmaids."
Bottom line: Rooting for Louis-Dreyfus, but McCarthy will
Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series
I find this recent inclusion of "SNL" players in acting categories a bit odd,
especially as they always play such a sprawling collection of characters in one
season. Plus, it's so hit-or-miss. Bill Hader has as much of a shot as
Max Greenfield ("New Girl"), which
is not much. So, cast division continues on "Modern Family," or sharing the
Emmy wealth, depending on how you look at it. I think it's down to Ed O'Neill or Ty Burrell. And while I'd like it to
be the former, my gut says the latter takes it home.
Bottom line: Rooting for O'Neill (can he get one for Al
Bundy, even though the show's been off for
years?), but Burrell wins.
Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Even though Emmy has already been kind to "Desperate Housewives"
pip Kathryn Joosten, her passing away as
soon as the series stopped filming is heartbreaking and could certainly be the
catalyst for the aforementioned "sentimental favorite" scenario being played
I have a better question. Who care?. The American people have more important things to think about during these difficult times. I can't even relate to the lifestyles of these wealthy people, and they surely don't care about my insignificant life.
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