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2012 Emmy Winner Predictions

We run down the night's likely big winners and who we're really rooting for

By Vinnie Penn
Special to MSN TV

My Oscar prediction record is startling: I honestly don't think I have gotten one wrong in over 10 years. I was kicked out of an Academy Award party many years ago due to my predictions proving correct so tirelessly that it infuriated the host. Not big on dessert, and having had my fill of both stuffed mushrooms and stuffed breads, I left without incident. He had already delivered an impassioned "You just shouldn't win twice" speech at a previous party, in regard to Hilary Swank taking home her second, so his bad manners came as no surprise. (For the record, yes, I called Swank both times.)

Photo: See this year's nominees | Also: Emmy nomination snubs and surprises

Why am I going on and on about my Oscar prediction track record for a piece about Emmy predictions? Well, because it's pristine, spotless, perfect. And my Emmy one -- yeah, not so much.

Fact is, the Emmys can be big on repeat visits to the podium for folks. Real big. That makes it occasionally tough to call. They are also prone to nostalgia, to giving it up to the "sentimental favorite." Then there's the penchant for debut-season sweeps (which HBO's "Girls" can easily pull off this year, though I doubt it will).

More: See the full list of nominees | Bing: More about this year's Emmys

That said, I have done my TV-addicted best to predict the outcome in the major categories here. The 64th Primetime Emmy Awards airs Sunday, Sept. 23, and is hosted by Jimmy Kimmel, who is a nominee as well, in the variety series category. Yes, the host is also a nominee, much like James Franco at the Oscars. But Kimmel will be entertaining and actually has a shot at winning.

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Comedy Series

Great comedies all. This is the way I see it: The bloom is off the "Curb Your Enthusiasm" and "30 Rock" roses, and Jim Parsons already put "The Big Bang Theory" on the Emmy map. "Girls" has the buzz, but I don't see one named Emmy ... yet. "Veep" is fantastic but nowhere near rarified air. Again ... yet. "Modern Family" should win, continuing its roll, the bloom not off its rose. Yet.

Bottom line: Rooting for "Big Bang," but "Modern Family" will win.

Lead Actor in a Comedy Series

Let the contradictions begin! Well, first things first: Alec Baldwin's won one too many. Jim Parsons, too, is an Emmy darling, and Jon Cryer would come across only as a mea culpa of sorts. Don Cheadle and Louis C.K. are pure throwaway territory. This being the case, my prediction is that they will go with, yes, the "sentimental favorite." Larry David will win in a "swan song" capacity. And ya know what? That's so fine by me.

Bottom line: Torn between David and Parsons, but David will win.

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series

This is the toughest one to call. I do not think any "SNL" alumna will get the gold, which includes Julia Louis-Dreyfus (for HBO's "Veep"), although that would make for an interesting acceptance speech, considering how vocal she was winning an Emmy and CBS promptly canceling her last series. Zooey Deschanel's "New Girl" wound up being a surprise hit, but as an ensemble. While Edie Falco of "Nurse Jackie" could cause an upset, my money is actually on Melissa McCarthy making her second trip to the stage in a row. Even without the strong current of "Bridesmaids."

Bottom line: Rooting for Louis-Dreyfus, but McCarthy will win.

Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series

I find this recent inclusion of "SNL" players in acting categories a bit odd, especially as they always play such a sprawling collection of characters in one season. Plus, it's so hit-or-miss. Bill Hader has as much of a shot as Max Greenfield ("New Girl"), which is not much. So, cast division continues on "Modern Family," or sharing the Emmy wealth, depending on how you look at it. I think it's down to Ed O'Neill or Ty Burrell. And while I'd like it to be the former, my gut says the latter takes it home.

Bottom line: Rooting for O'Neill (can he get one for Al Bundy, even though the show's been off for years?), but Burrell wins.

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series

Even though Emmy has already been kind to "Desperate Housewives" pip Kathryn Joosten, her passing away as soon as the series stopped filming is heartbreaking and could certainly be the catalyst for the aforementioned "sentimental favorite" scenario being played out.

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Page 1 of 2 
Sep 23, 2012 6:29AM
I have a better question. Who care?. The American people have more important things to think about during these difficult times. I can't even relate to the lifestyles of these wealthy people, and they surely don't care about my insignificant life.
Sep 23, 2012 7:29AM
Why can't you get rid of all the spam on this side?  People are checking this to read other people's opinions and we have to put up with old men trying to find young women or hookers trying to get more clients.  Don't know who is more annoying - the kartrashians or the spam posters.
Sep 23, 2012 7:56AM
Who cares?  don't watch the crap any longer.
Sep 23, 2012 7:41AM
Who cares about the Emmys anyway? Just a bunch of overdressed fakes receiving awards & 10,000.00$ gift bags they do not deserve. Because **** Award Shows....
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