We're guessing NBC's "The Office" and FOX's
"Glee," which don't have
the heat they once did, won't get nominated this year. And we're guessing
that HBO's "Curb," which didn't air in the eligibility period last time around,
will return to the category. FX's "Louie" deserves its first nomination and may
get it, given the critical praise for the show and star Louis C.K.'s general
popularity of late. HBO's "Girls" would be a deserving and worthy choice, but it
may be hurt by the unfair controversy about why there aren't more women of color
on the show. (Answer: Because it isn't about every woman on Earth, but rather a
small group of privileged white ones).
Possible dark horses or snubs: FOX's "New Girl" could snag a
nomination based on its popularity, but it doesn't feel substantial enough to
appeal to Emmy voters, who like to think of their medium as important.
Projected winner: "Modern Family" has won for the past two
consecutive years, making it a safe choice, as well as a worthy one. "Louie" and
"Curb" are funnier, but both are much harder to like: "Curb" because of Larry David's deliberate unlikability
and "Louie" because of its surreal sequences and willingness to get very
"Downton Abbey" is submitting in the category this time after winning six
Emmys last season, including for Outstanding Miniseries or Movie. We expect the
splashy new "Homeland" to displace another Showtime show, "Dexter," given that its
last season wasn't its best.
The exit of "Friday Night Lights"
from the airwaves opens up another slot, which we expect to go to "Breaking
Bad," which wasn't eligible last year. That means one show has to be bumped to
give "Downton Abbey" a place, and we think that show -- and we hate to say this
-- may be "The Good Wife."
Possible dark horses or snubs: "The Good Wife" and "Dexter."
Emmy voters seem too beholden to HBO to let the fantastic "Boardwalk Empire" or
"Game of Thrones" lose their places. (The only way "Game of Thrones" could lose
its place is if its voters start feeling an aversion to blood-filled
Not nominating "Breaking Bad" or "Mad Men," meanwhile, would be a travesty.
AMC's "The Walking Dead" could
score a nomination, since it's definitely one of the most dramatic dramas on
television, but its goriness is probably a huge turn-off to many Emmy voters.
Projected winner: "Breaking Bad." The fourth season of the
methamphetamine epic was unassailable. But we also think fans of serious, adult
dramas -- the kinds of serious adult dramas not set largely in a meth lab --
will be split between "Mad Men" and "Downton Abbey." That may keep "Mad Men"
from scoring a fifth consecutive win in the category and create an opening for
Emmy voters have overlooked brilliantly written modern-day drug stories
before: The fact that "The Wire" never won
tells you everything you need to know about how seriously to take Emmy voters'
opinions. But we're trusting them to get it right this time.
This will be a hard-fought category. And it's one of the toughest to predict.
Last season was a very big one for women in comedy, with many thriving new shows
that are led by women, star women, or both.
We predict Louis-Dreyfus, Deschanel and Dunham will join the category for
their roles on three of those shows. We expect them to bump Laura Linney, star of the "Big C," Edie Falco, star of "Nurse Jackie" and Martha Plimpton, star of "Raising Hope." Why?
Falco has won already in this category, as well as in drama. Linney has also won
in other categories, and been nominated before for this role, which is as much
dramatic as comedic. Plimpton, good as she is, anchors her ensemble show less
than the other nominees.
Do we think Deschanel is a better actress than Linney? Not by a longshot. We
think she and Dunham are largely playing versions of themselves. But Deschanel
is popular. And voters realize that Dunham, like Fey, is the creative force
behind her show. Nominating her isn't just about recognizing her acting.
Possible dark horses or snubs: We wouldn't be surprised at
all to see Linney, Falco or Plimpton stay in the category. And it's very
possible that Dunham will be penalized for her willingness to play a sometimes
very unlikable character.
Projected winner: In May, we predicted Louis-Dreyfus. But
now that we've seen the entire first season of her show, we think it's an
absolute toss-up between her and Poehler. Louis-Dreyfus is hilarious on "Veep,"
but her character may be too arch for some voters.
This looks like one of the more stable categories. We expect all of last
year's nominees to return, except for Matt LeBlanc, whose Showtime series
"Episodes" didn't air in
the eligibility period, and Steve Carell, who left "The Office.
Helms could easily slide into Carell's spot, and David, whose show
didn't air in the eligibility period last year, can take LeBlanc's spot.
Projected winner: Parsons, even though C.K. should. Parsons
is an incredibly affable actor, and his show has only gotten more successful in
its most recent season. But he's won twice and that's enough.
C.K., like David, is the brilliant mind behind his show. But between the two
of them, C.K. is the better actor. Both play versions of themselves, but C.K. is
much more vulnerable. His character goes to more challenging places, and not
just emotionally. An Afghanistan-set episode called "Ducking," in which Louie
goes on a USO tour, is as good an hour of TV as you'll ever watch.
Of last year's nominees, we expect Margulies, last year's winner, to return,
along with Hargitay and Moss. (Connie Britton of the canceled
"Friday Night Lights" is no longer in the running, though she likely will be
nominated in the miniseries category for her turn on FX's "American Horror
Story.") Danes is also certain to join the list, along with Close, a
two-time past winner for "Damages." Voters' "Downton" love should ensure
McGovern a spot as well.
Possible dark horses or snubs: Kathy Bates, previously nominated for
the canceled "Harry's Law," could
find her way back into the category. So could Mireille Enos of "The Killing," who was
also nominated last year. (We think she'll be bumped because "The Killing"
tested viewers' patience last season, but that wasn't her fault.) Debra Messing could also join the
category because Emmy voters like nominating her, and it would be a way to
acknowledge NBC's "Smash." She's been
nominated six times before and won for "Will & Grace." And
Jessica Pare could score her first
nomination for "Mad Men."
Projected winner: Danes. She was one of the two most crucial
characters on "Homeland" and got to play a hard-drinking, manic-depressive
genius CIA analyst who falls in love with the possible terrorist she's trying to
stop. It's hard to picture a more Emmy-friendly role, and Emmy voters liked
Danes already: She won last year for HBO's "Temple Grandin."
We expect this category to look exactly like it did last year, except with
three-time winner Cranston returning after a year of his show being off the air
in the eligibility period. He'll take the place of "Friday Night Lights" star Kyle Chandler, who won last year.
Possible dark horses or snubs: Multi-Emmy winner Kelsey Grammer could score a
nomination for Starz's "Boss," possibly bumping
Laurie or Hall. Voters will probably want to nominate Laurie to recognize the
last season of "House." Hall could be bumped because the last season of "Dexter"
arguably has him in less of an emotional arc than past seasons, as Jennifer Carpenter's character
underwent the bigger change. And voters will have more chances to recognize
Projected winner: Cranston. Because he's always won for
"Breaking Bad" before, and last season was the show's best.
Giancarlo Esposito and Aaron Paul will both be nominated in
the supporting dramatic actor category for "Breaking Bad," setting up a dogfight
of a race with Peter Dinklage, last year's winner
for "Game of Thrones." Michael Pitt also deserves to be
nominated in the category for "Boardwalk Empire."
"American Horror Story" will have a big showing in the movie or miniseries
categories after opting not to compete as a drama series.
i am so excited Breaking Bad is eligable this year, that truly is one of the greatest shows ever written! Game of thrones and Homeland are probly my 2nd choices, though there all great shows. i would have liked to see Nurse Jackie or The Big C get a mention.
Who the heck cares, none of the shows I like ever get awards. The actors, directors just use the Emmys to pat themselves on the back for some real drivel, especially drivel that glorifies crime. No need to care or watch.